Uses for the DGHPSim models
DGHPSim models can be used for a range of purposes, from operational level to policy level analysis. For example to explore;- Resources needed to meet target (e.g. 18 week RTT)
- Waiting times achievable given specific resources
- Effect of trading elective admissions against emergencies
- Waits for admitted v/s non-admitted patients
- Testing proposals for change (e.g. from Modernisation Agency/NHS III)
- Commissioning acute care with changing demands
We can give an example to examine three separate options for change in a hospital. In this example only Phase 3 in RTT (waiting times on waiting lists) is considered. In this simple example, the hospital's old data (2004/2005) is used. Scenarios include;
- Reduce average LoS by 20%
- Keep bed total constant, allocate 30% more to electives (Total beds: 427, Elective beds: 128 (up from 96))
- 1100 Extra day-cases (12% increase), hence fewer standard admissions
The table below shows the results from this DGHPSim experiment. On the columns, simulation outputs for the three scenarios and the base-case scenario ("as-was in 04/05") are compared. First four rows are the percentages of the patients who waited more than that weeks. Yellow rows show other simulation output variables. "Elect patients" is the annual number of elective patients. "Elect cancelled" is the annual number of elective cancellations (with their percentages). "Emerg outliers" is the annual number of emergency outliers.
